Non-COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran: a longitudinal assessment of 41 million people in 2019-2022.

BACKGROUND: During a COVID-19 pandemic, it is imperative to investigate the outcomes of all non-COVID-19 diseases. This study determines hospital admissions and mortality rates related to non-COVID-19 diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic among 41 million Iranians. METHOD: This nationwide retrospective study used data from the Iran Health Insurance Organization. From September 23, 2019, to Feb 19, 2022, there were four study periods: pre-pandemic (Sept 23-Feb 19, 2020), first peak (Mar 20-Apr 19, 2020), first year (Feb 20, 2020-Feb 18, 2021), and the second year (Feb 19, 2021-Feb 19, 2022) following the pandemic. Cause-specific hospital admission and in-hospital mortality are the main outcomes analyzed based on age and sex. Negative binomial regression was used to estimate the monthly adjusted Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) to compare hospital admission rates in aggregated data. A logistic regression was used to estimate the monthly adjusted in-hospital mortality Odds Ratio (OR) for different pandemic periods. RESULTS: During the study there were 6,522,114 non-COVID-19 hospital admissions and 139,679 deaths. Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, the standardized hospital admission rate per million person-month was 7115.19, which decreased to 2856.35 during the first peak (IRR 0.40, [0.25-0.64]). In-hospital mortality also increased from 20.20 to 31.99 (OR 2.05, [1.97-2.13]). All age and sex groups had decreased admission rates, except for females at productive ages. Two years after the COVID-19 outbreak, the non-COVID-19 hospital admission rate (IRR 1.25, [1.13-1.40]) and mortality rate (OR 1.05, [1.04-1.07]) increased compared to the rates before the pandemic. The respiratory disease admission rate decreased in the first (IRR 0.23, [0.17-0.31]) and second years (IRR 0.35, [0.26-0.47] compared to the rate before the pandemic. There was a significant reduction in hospitalizations for pneumonia (IRR 0.30, [0.21-0.42]), influenza (IRR 0.04, [0.03-0.06]) and COPD (IRR 0.39, [0.23-0.65]) during the second year. There was a significant and continuous rise in the hematological admission rate during the study, reaching 186.99 per million person-month in the second year, reflecting an IRR of 2.84 [2.42-3.33] compared to the pre-pandemic period. The mortality rates of mental disorders (OR 2.15, [1.65-2.78]) and musculoskeletal (OR 1.48, [1.20-1.82), nervous system (OR 1.42, [1.26-1.60]), metabolic (OR 1.99, [1.80-2.19]) and circulatory diseases (OR 1.35, [1.31-1.39]) increased in the second year compare to pre-pandemic. Myocardial infarction (OR 1.33, [1.19-1.49]), heart failure (OR 1.59, [1.35-1.87]) and stroke (OR 1.35, [1.24-1.47]) showed an increase in mortality rates without changes in hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: In the era of COVID-19, the changes seem to have had a long-term effect on non-COVID-19 diseases. Countries should prepare for similar crises in the future to ensure medical services are not suspended.

Prevalence and Determinants of Catastrophic Healthcare Expenditures in Iran From 2013 to 2019.

OBJECTIVES: Protecting people against financial hardship caused by illness stands as a fundamental obligation within healthcare systems and constitutes a pivotal component in achieving universal health coverage. The objective of this study was to analyze the prevalence and determinants of catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) in Iran, over the period of 2013 to 2019. METHODS: Data were obtained from 7 annual national surveys conducted between 2013 and 2019 on the income and expenditures of Iranian households. The prevalence of CHE was determined using a threshold of 40% of household capacity to pay for healthcare. A binary logistic regression model was used to identify the determinants influencing CHE. RESULTS: The prevalence of CHE increased from 3.60% in 2013 to 3.95% in 2019. In all the years analyzed, the extent of CHE occurrence among rural populations exceeded that of urban populations. Living in an urban area, having a higher wealth index, possessing health insurance coverage, and having employed family members, an employed household head, and a literate household head are all associated with a reduced likelihood of CHE (p<0.05). Conversely, the use of dental, outpatient, and inpatient care, and the presence of elderly members in the household, are associated with an increased probability of facing CHE (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Throughout the study period, CHE consistently exceeded the 1% threshold designated in the national development plan. Continuous monitoring of CHE and its determinants at both household and health system levels is essential for the implementation of effective strategies aimed at enhancing financial protection.

Is Palbociclib a cost-effective strategy in the second-line treatment of metastatic breast cancer in Iran?

BACKGROUND & AIMS: This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of Palbociclib in the second-line treatment of hormone receptor-positive (HR+) human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2-) metastatic breast cancer (MBC) in Iran. METHODS: The present economic evaluation used a partitioned survival model (PSM). This model compares lifetime costs and disease outcomes among groups receiving different medication combinations containing Palbociclib, Fulvestrant, Everolimus, Ribociclib, and Abemaciclib as the second-line therapy for HR+/HER2- MBC. The model was conducted from Iran's healthcare perspective, structured with 1-month cycles, and the evaluation time horizon in the base analysis was set to 180 cycles (15 years). Transition probabilities were extracted using the survival curves. The cost information was extracted based on the year 2020. The Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALY) was considered the final outcome unit, and the cost-effectiveness of different combinations is calculated as cost per QALY. The annual discount rate of 5% was considered for costs and QALYs. Two times Iran's GDP per capita (800,000,000 IRR = US$5934) was used as the threshold. Finally, due to the uncertainty of some parameters, deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were carried out. RESULTS: The base case results showed that the highest cost was for the 'Ribociclib+ Fulvestrant' combination (US$89,629.56), and the lowest price was for the 'Iranian Everolimus + Fulvestrant' combination (US$10,740.09). 'Palbociclib + Fulvestrant' brings about the highest value of 1.456 incremental QALYs compared to other strategies. Finally, the 'Iranian Palbociclib + Fulvestrant' was the cost-effective combination, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$4,201 compared to other strategies. The base case results were supported by the probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Deterministic sensitivity analysis showed that the cost of Iranian Palbociclib has a threshold of US$582.99. CONCLUSIONS: The 'Iranian Palbociclib + Fulvestrant' combination was cost-effective in second-line therapy for HR+ HER2- MBC in Iran.